Great write-up. Institutional REIT ownership is near all time lows and REIT’s have returned poorly the last decade. The better REITs should move significantly when institutional flows start again, I’ve been buying most of these names and a few others for a while and it is getting more difficult to find volume without moving the price, noticed this especially with Dream Unlimited and Plaza Retail the last few weeks.
Neither are supply constrained which is the problem.
NA lumber is at least closing mills (BC/Pacific North west) but iron ore production keeps growing and there is the ramp of Simandou.
If US cuts rates aggressively then lumber should have its moment
I prefer met coal to iron ore. As it is more supply constrained than met.
While US rate cuts will help met, iron ore, NA steel cos, what we really need is for the US to get serious with China’s massive trade surplus. Its robbing NA/EU demand which is hurting all the steel complex.
Thanks! Counter cyclical add on lumber is clever and I wanted to explore that myself given I feel we will see an opportunity to expand construction/residential.
Great write-up. Institutional REIT ownership is near all time lows and REIT’s have returned poorly the last decade. The better REITs should move significantly when institutional flows start again, I’ve been buying most of these names and a few others for a while and it is getting more difficult to find volume without moving the price, noticed this especially with Dream Unlimited and Plaza Retail the last few weeks.
More early than clever at this stage…😂😂
Iron ore and lumber both interesting to me in theory given where we are at the cycle. Neither is my game but on my to-do list.
Neither are supply constrained which is the problem.
NA lumber is at least closing mills (BC/Pacific North west) but iron ore production keeps growing and there is the ramp of Simandou.
If US cuts rates aggressively then lumber should have its moment
I prefer met coal to iron ore. As it is more supply constrained than met.
While US rate cuts will help met, iron ore, NA steel cos, what we really need is for the US to get serious with China’s massive trade surplus. Its robbing NA/EU demand which is hurting all the steel complex.
Another good article. Always look forward to them.
Own most of your featured REITs, and looking to add $plz.un.
I also like $mi.un here and have a small positions in cdn building products, $aep.v, and a speculative position in gfp.to, Ontario lumber.
Thanks! Counter cyclical add on lumber is clever and I wanted to explore that myself given I feel we will see an opportunity to expand construction/residential.